P&G Resources

Executive Summary – Earnings Report and Stock Reaction – October 2024

Executive Summary - Earnings Report and Stock Reaction

Procter & Gamble reported earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2025 on Friday, October 18. On a day during which the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 set new record highs, the stock opened slightly lower but by midday had bounced back, with the stock trading unchanged from the day prior, ultimately settling in around $171 per share. 1Q organic sales growth was reported at 2%, showing a slight sequential deceleration. During the quarter, pricing and volumes both were 1% higher, driven largely by strength in Grooming, offsetting Beauty sales, which were 2% lower. In summary, P&G generated solid revenue growth across 85% of the business, and overall, 1Q results were in line with expectations, leading management to maintain its fiscal 2025 guidance.

What We Like

Earnings per share came in above expectations at $1.93 (versus consensus expectations of $1.90). Earnings quality was mixed, with gross margins in line with expectations and SG&A expense leverage, despite ongoing reinvestment. During the quarter, volume was higher, led by organic sales growth in Health Care (+4% organic growth), Grooming (+3% organic) and Fabric & Home Care (+3% organic). Further, Focus and Enterprise markets reported sales growth of 2% and 1%, respectively, with U.S., Canada and Europe Focus markets showing strong growth. North American sales were solid, with eight of 10 categories holding or growing volume share and reporting the Company is not seeing any trade down to private label products. Despite declining revenue growth and challenges in China, P&G reiterated guidance for the year that contemplates accelerating top-line growth through the balance of the year. Challenges remain, yet the Company successfully managed through volatile commodity pricing, currency and geopolitical tensions.

What Bears Watching

Organic sales continued to worsen during the quarter in China (the country accounts for less than 10% of total revenue), with total country sales down 15%. Management highlighted volume declines in China in both hair care and skin care, driven in part by its premium skincare brand (SK-II), which was down 35% globally, compared with -21% in 4Q24.

Beauty sales were lower by 2%. Within the category, hair care and personal care were positive, however, that growth was more than offset by declines in the skin care business, which reported organic sales that were 20% lower. As noted above, management attributed much of the responsibility for the underperformance to the SK-II brand, which has continued to struggle in China for various reasons.

Given the forecast for sequential top-line acceleration, the Street remains focused on Q2 organic sales and will watch for improving trends in Europe and Latin America. Additionally, the Street is focused on continued productivity gains to drive balanced top- and bottom-line growth.

Bottom Line

P&G delivered results in line with expectations and reiterated F2025 guidance. We will continue to watch as the Company manages through a challenging and volatile environment. Led by North America, sales growth is expected to accelerate through the year despite expectations of continued softness in China. Management remains committed to its integrated strategy and focus on investing in superior brands across its five business units.

Mariner and P&G are unaffiliated entities.

This material is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The information has been obtained from what we believe is a reliable source (P&G), but Mariner makes no warranties about the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of such information. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Nothing herein should construed as a individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. Please consult with your advisor regarding your personal situation before making any financial or investment related decisions.

Investing involves risk and the potential to lose principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Please note that comments summarized herein based on the earnings call and include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from any future results expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. For more information on the factors that could influence results, including risks and uncertainties, please refer to P&G SEC filings.

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